15. NOVEMBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

✅ Investment Digest – November 14, 2025
By Bernd Pulch – “Investment: The Original”
📍patreon.com/investment

📈 Global Market Snapshot

US Markets: The S&P 500 held roughly flat after heavy selling earlier, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined ~0.6 % amid weakness in growth stocks.
Europe: Indices slumped—FTSE 100 down ~1.1 %, DAX down ~0.9 %—amid broad-based risk-off sentiment.
Asia: Tech-heavy markets took a hit—Nikkei 225 fell ~1.8 %, Kospi down ~3.8 % as investors exited high-beta/AI names.

💰 Commodities & Currencies

Gold: Remained elevated near recent highs, though showed a slight dip on stronger yields and risk appetite still mixed.
Oil (Brent): Stronger on supply fears—Brent gained ~1.5 % to ~$64/bbl amid Middle-East tensions.
Crypto: Risk assets including crypto were under pressure as macro uncertainty rose; Bitcoin and major tokens pulled back.
FX: The U.S. dollar index stood near ~99.2, while the yen traded near ~¥154.5 per USD as safe-haven flows fluctuated.

📊 Sector Highlights

Tech / AI: Productivity names like Nvidia Corporation and other major AI-exposed equities fell ~3–4% as market scrutiny on valuations resumed.
Financials / Cyclicals: Some resilience as money rotated out of mega-cap growth; select banks and value plays outperformed.
Emerging Markets / Asia Tech: Under pressure—tabular exposures in Korea, Taiwan and China flagged high losses among chip/supply-chain names.
Commodities & Energy: Mixed; oil benefited from supply concerns, but base-metals and industrial metals lagged amid growth worries.

🌍 Macro Focus

Fed Policy Risk: Comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes of a December rate cut—markets now price ~49% chance.
Tech Bubble Concern: With AI valuations under scrutiny, the major market drivers of 2025 are showing signs of fatigue.
Chinese Weakness: Fresh data show weak fixed-asset investment and under-performance in Chinese economic indicators, raising global growth concerns.

📈 Investment Insight by Bernd Pulch

“When the story changes, it doesn’t wait. The narrative of ‘AI + easy money + global reopening’ is hitting a structural pause. The question now isn’t ‘Will we rally?’ but ‘On what footing?’ Liquidity, credibility of growth and validity of valuations will decide the next leg.”

🎯 Watchlist

Asset Approx Value 1-Day Change 1-Week Trend S&P 500 ~6,800 (flat to -0.6%) ↘ → Gold ~$4,200/oz ↗ / slightly → Bitcoin Under pressure, pulled back ↘ ↘ Brent Oil ~$64/bbl ↗ ~+1.5% → USD/JPY ~¥154.5 per USD ↗ ↗

🔒 Support Independent Analysis

This Investment Digest is part of the Bernd Pulch – Investment: The Original series. For full research briefs, annotated datasets, early-access intelligence and portfolio models:
👉 patreon.com/investment

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

🇩🇪 Investment Digest – 14. November 2025

Von Bernd Pulch – „Investment: Das Original“
📍patreon.com/investment

📈 Globale Marktübersicht

USA: Der S&P 500 bewegte sich nach den starken Verlusten der Vortage kaum, während der Dow Jones Industrial Average rund –0,6 % fiel – ausgelöst durch erneuten Druck auf Wachstums- und Tech-Aktien.
Europa: Schwacher Handelstag – der FTSE 100 verlor ca. –1,1 %, der DAX rund –0,9 %, getrieben von weiterem Abbau von Risikopositionen.
Asien: Besonders Tech-lastige Märkte gerieten massiv unter Druck – der Nikkei 225 sank um etwa –1,8 %, der Kospi rutschte um –3,8 % ab.

💰 Rohstoffe & Devisen

Gold: Leicht schwächer, aber weiterhin nahe jüngster Hochs – gestützt durch Unsicherheit, begrenzt durch höhere Renditen.
Öl (Brent): Wieder stärker – rund +1,5 % auf etwa $64/Barrel wegen anhaltender geopolitischer Risiken im Nahen Osten.
Krypto: Breite Schwäche – Bitcoin und große Altcoins gaben nach, belastet durch Risk-Off-Stimmung.
FX: Der US-Dollar-Index lag bei etwa 99,2, während der Yen nahe ¥154,5 pro USD notierte.

📊 Branchenfokus

Technologie / KI: Schwer getroffen – große KI-Titel wie Nvidia und andere Chip-Aktien fielen 3–4 %, da Investoren überhitze Bewertungen neu bewerten.
Finanzwerte & Zykliker: Zeigten relative Stärke, da Kapital aus Mega-Cap-Tech abgezogen und in Value-Titel umgeschichtet wurde.
Asien-Tech: Korea, China und Taiwan besonders schwach – Lieferketten- und Halbleiteraktien im breiten Abverkauf.
Rohstoffe & Energie: Gemischtes Bild – Öl im Plus, Industrie-Metalle weiterhin belastet durch Wachstumssorgen.

🌍 Makro-Trends

Fed-Risiko: Kommentare der US-Notenbank reduzierten Hoffnungen auf eine Zinssenkung im Dezember – Wahrscheinlichkeit jetzt nur noch rund 49 %.
AI-Bewertungsdruck: Die jahrelange Erzählung „KI + billiges Geld + globale Erholung“ verliert an Kraft – Anleger prüfen Fundamentaldaten strenger.
China-Schwäche: Neue Daten zeigen anhaltend schwache Investitionen und rückläufige Wirtschaftsdynamik – Risiko für Weltkonjunktur steigt.

📈 Einschätzung von Bernd Pulch

„Wenn sich eine Marktgeschichte ändert, fragt sie nicht um Erlaubnis. Die Phase des ungebremsten KI-Optimismus ist vorbei. Jetzt zählt: Liquidität, Glaubwürdigkeit des Wachstums und die Realität der Bewertungen. Nur darauf baut der nächste Marktzyklus.“

🎯 Watchlist

Asset Aktueller Wert (ca.) Tagestrend Wochentrend S&P 500 ~6.800 (seitwärts/–) ↘ → Gold ~4.200 $/oz leicht ↘ → Bitcoin schwächer ↘ ↘ Brent Öl ~64 $/Barrel ↗ +1,5 % → USD/JPY ~154,5 ↗ ↗

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INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST NOVEMBER 13/14 2025✌INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL 13./14. NOVEMBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

✅ Investment Digest – November 13, 2025
By Bernd Pulch – “Investment: The Original”
📍patreon.com/investment

📈 Global Market Snapshot

US Markets: The S&P 500 slipped about -1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly ‐1.7% (~-800 points) and the Nasdaq Composite fell around -2.3%. Concerns around overvalued AI stocks and fading hopes of a near-term rate cut weighed.
Europe: Markets showed mixed performance—some indices hit record highs, but the tone was cautious as investors awaited refreshed U.S. economic data after the shutdown.
Asia: The Nikkei 225 rose ~+0.3 % while the broader Topix index reached an all-time high, as investor focus shifted away from the most speculative AI names. Meanwhile the yen weakened sharply, hitting near ¥155 per dollar.

💰 Commodities & Currencies

Gold: Held above ~$4,200/oz, supported by safe-haven demand despite market dips.
Oil (Brent): Fell to around $62.34/barrel, pressured by an outlook for surplus supply in 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC): Amid broader risk-off sentiment, crypto markets pulled back with Bitcoin dropping below key levels.
EUR/USD & USD/JPY: The dollar was relatively firm as rate-cut expectations were adjusted; the yen hit near nine-month lows (~¥154.9).

📊 Sector Highlights

Tech / AI: Major AI-names such as Nvidia Corporation declined ~3.6% after a large stake sale by SoftBank Group, reigniting valuation concerns.
Financials / Cyclicals: Outperformed modestly as investor money rotated away from high-flying growth stocks toward sectors more tied to economic reopening.
Commodity / Mining: Australian mining stocks showed relative strength given expectations of lower global rates and stronger Chinese demand.
Crypto & Blockchain: With broader risk assets under pressure and inflows uncertain, crypto remains in a consolidation phase.

🌍 Macro Focus

US Data Resumption: With the government shutdown ended, investors await the delayed U.S. economic prints—jobs, inflation, retail—for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Oil Market Outlook: The International Energy Agency warns of a larger global oil surplus by 2026 (~4.09 m bpd), strengthening oversupply concerns.
Treasury Market Liquidity: Despite relative yield stability, depth and bid-ask spreads in U.S. Treasuries are under scrutiny—a structural risk for asset pricing models.

🚀 Investment Insight by Bernd Pulch

“Relief from gridlock lifts sentiment—but the real test comes with the return of data flows and liquidity. A government reopening is a pre-condition, not the prize. Now the markets will ask: where will the money go when the noise fades?”

🎯 Watchlist

Asset Current 1D Change 1W Trend S&P 500 ~6,850 -1.7% ↘ Gold ~$4,200/oz steady/higher → Bitcoin sub-$100k approx ↓ perhaps ↘ Brent Oil ~$62.3/barrel ↓ ~-3% ↘ USD/JPY ~¥154.9 ↑ ↑

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This Investment Digest is part of the Bernd Pulch – Investment: The Original series, delivering independent intelligence beyond mainstream narratives.
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Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

🇩🇪 Investment Digest – 13. November 2025

Von Bernd Pulch – „Investment: Das Original“
📍patreon.com/investment

📈 Globale Märkte im Überblick

USA: Der S&P 500 fiel um rund -1,7 %, der Dow Jones verlor fast -1,7 % (ca. -800 Punkte) und der Nasdaq Composite gab etwa -2,3 % nach. Auslöser waren neue Sorgen um überbewertete KI-Aktien und sinkende Erwartungen an schnelle Zinssenkungen.
Europa: Die europäischen Börsen zeigten ein gemischtes Bild – einige Indizes markierten neue Hochs, insgesamt blieb die Stimmung jedoch vorsichtig, da Anleger auf frische US-Konjunkturdaten nach dem Shutdown warten.
Asien: Der Nikkei 225 stieg um ca. +0,3 %, der breitere Topix erreichte ein Allzeithoch. Anleger reduzierten Engagements in den spekulativsten KI-Werten. Der Yen schwächte sich deutlich ab und fiel in Richtung ¥155 je US-Dollar.

💰 Rohstoffe & Devisen

Gold: Hielt sich über $4.200/oz – gestützt von sicherheitsorientierten Käufen trotz schwächerer Aktienmärkte.
Öl (Brent): Fiel auf etwa $62,34 pro Barrel, belastet durch den Ausblick auf ein deutliches Überangebot bis 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC): Im Zuge der Risikoaversion gerieten Kryptos unter Druck; Bitcoin rutschte unter wichtige charttechnische Marken.
EUR/USD & USD/JPY: Der US-Dollar blieb insgesamt fest, da Hoffnungen auf rasche Zinssenkungen nachließen. Der USD/JPY kletterte auf ein Neun-Monats-Hoch in der Zone um ¥154,9.

📊 Branchen im Fokus

Technologie / KI: Große KI-Profiteure wie Nvidia gerieten unter Druck (Rückgang um rund 3–4 %), nachdem SoftBank einen milliardenschweren Anteil verkauft hatte – die Bewertungsdiskussion im Sektor flammt erneut auf.
Finanz- & Zykliker: Zeigten relative Stärke, da Kapital aus hoch bewerteten Wachstumswerten in konjunktursensitivere Branchen umgeschichtet wurde.
Rohstoffe & Mining: Australische Rohstoff- und Minenwerte profitierten von der Aussicht auf niedrigere globale Zinsen und eine mögliche Nachfragebelebung aus China.
Krypto & Blockchain: Bleiben in einer Konsolidierungsphase; fehlende, stabile Zuflüsse und ein fragiler Risikoappetit dämpfen den Sektor.

🌍 Makro-Fokus

US-Daten kehren zurück: Nach dem Ende des längsten US-Shutdown warten Märkte nun auf nachgelieferte Statistiken (Beschäftigung, Inflation, Konsum). Diese Daten werden entscheidend für den weiteren Kurs der Fed-Politik.
Ölmarkt & IEA: Die Internationale Energieagentur erwartet bis 2026 ein noch größeres globales Öl-Überangebot (geschätzter Überschuss von über 4 Mio. Barrel pro Tag) – ein struktureller Gegenwind für Ölpreise.
Liquidität im Anleihemarkt: Trotz relativ stabiler Renditen bleibt die Tiefe im US-Treasury-Markt unter Beobachtung. Ausgedünnte Liquidität kann in Stressphasen heftige Kursbewegungen auslösen.

📈 Einschätzung von Bernd Pulch

„Die Erleichterung über das Ende eines Shutdowns ist nur der Auftakt. Die eigentliche Prüfung beginnt, wenn Daten, Liquidität und Realität wieder auf den Markt treffen. Reopening ist der Start – nicht das Ziel.“

🎯 Watchlist

Asset Aktueller Stand (ca.) 1-Tages-Veränderung 1-Wochen-Trend S&P 500 ~6.850 -1,7 % ↘ Gold ~$4.200/oz stabil / leicht ↑ → Bitcoin < $100.000 ↓ ↘ Brent Öl ~$62,3/Barrel ca. -3 % ↘ USD/JPY ~¥154,9 ↑ ↑

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*Haftungsausschluss: Keine Anlageberatung. Vergangene Wertentwicklungen sind kein verlässlicher Indikator für zukünftige Ergebnisse.*

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INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST NOVEMBER 12/13 2025✌INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL 12./13. NOVEMBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

INVESTMENT – THE ORIGINAL DIGEST – November 12, 2025 ✌

FOUNDED 2000 – STILL INDEPENDENT. STILL UNFILTERED.

Executive Summary (English)

Markets entered November 12 in a phase of cautious optimism as the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to vote on ending the federal shutdown and restoring critical data flows. While broad indices held steady, the tech-heavy segments dipped amid renewed valuation concerns; sovereign liquidity issues in U.S. Treasuries resurfaced as a focal risk.

Key Market Movements

Equities: The S&P 500 level held around 6,855 with negligible change (~–0.03 %) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surprised with a +0.72 % advance, primarily on cyclical strength.
Tech/AI: The spotlight was on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rising ~6–8 % after CEO remarks on AI market share growth; conversely, Nvidia Corporation edged lower after SoftBank Group’s ~$5.8 billion stake sale triggered caution.
Fixed Income: While yields remained relatively muted, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Treasury market liquidity has degraded somewhat — bid-ask spreads widened and depth thinned.
Commodities/FX: The U.S. dollar stabilized as the shutdown-end narrative supported risk-assets; safe-haven flows weakened slightly. Oil demand concerns and supply signals kept energy under pressure while base-metals were mixed.

Economic & Policy Context

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 43rd day, is expected to conclude imminently as the House moves toward funding restoration, boosting data-flow and policy clarity.
Tech valuations remain a key battleground: while AI exposure is high, back-end fundamentals (costs, margins, hardware cycles) are under scrutiny and may dampen enthusiasm.
Treasury market liquidity again flagged: Despite stable yields, depth and price-impact measures suggest structural strains — a hidden risk for global asset-pricing behaviour.

Tactical & Strategic Insight

Tactical (0-3 months): With the reopening narrative playing out, selective cyclicals and industrials may benefit, but investors should hedge tech exposure and watch liquidity cracks.
Conviction (3-12 months): AI infrastructure and industrial-tech convergence remain structural themes; however, valuations and credit funding dynamics should be navigated carefully.
Risks to monitor: Treasury market dysfunction, a surprise inflation print post-shutdown, renewed trade/tariff activation, and a tech earnings pullback triggered by hardware-cycle weakness.

Bernd Pulch Commentary

“Relief trades are always fragile until the plumbing holds. Right now, we’re watching two pipes: the reopening of government and the underlying liquidity system. One may open with a flourish — the other may already be leaking in silence.”

For full-scope briefs, intelligence dossiers, portfolio models and early-release alerts, visit: 👉 patreon.com/investment

Ausblick (Deutsch)

Die Aussicht auf das Ende des US-Shutdowns bringt kurzfristig eine positive Risikowelle, aber die Märkte erinnern sich – nicht alle Erleichterungs-Trades halten. Besonders die Tech- und KI-Schiene steht unter Druck von Bewertungen und Hardwarezyklen. Mittel- bis langfristig bleiben Liquidität, Refinanzierung und Bewertung die wahren Koordinaten.

Tags (English)

Investment Digest, Global Markets, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Tech Stocks, AI Infrastructure, Treasury Liquidity, Government Shutdown, Commodities, FX, Market Strategy, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exclusive

Tags (Deutsch)

Investment Digest, Weltmärkte, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Technologieaktien, KI-Infrastruktur, Treasury-Liquidität, Regierungsschließung, Rohstoffe, Devisen, Marktstrategie, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exklusiv

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INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST NOVEMBER 11/12 2025✌INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL 11./12. NOVEMBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

✅ Investment Digest – November 11, 2025
By Bernd Pulch – “Investment: The Original”
📍patreon.com/investment

INVESTMENT – THE ORIGINAL DIGEST – 11 November 2025 ✌

FOUNDED IN 2000 — STILL INDEPENDENT, STILL UNFILTERED

Executive Summary (English)

Global markets rallied on 11 November following news that the United States Senate passed a funding bill that could end the longest U.S. government shutdown, boosting risk sentiment. The S&P 500 posted its largest single-day gain since mid-October, while precious metals surged. However, the mood turned cautious as tech and AI valuations came under renewed scrutiny.

Key Market Movements

Equities: The S&P 500 closed at ~6,832.43 (+1.5%) on strong risk tone.
Precious Metals: Gold surged nearly 3% to above ~$4,100/oz on the reopening optimism.
Bonds & FX: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields spiked to ~~4.147% before settling around 4.11% amid shutdown resolution hopes. The yen hit a nine-month low (~~¥154.49) as safe-haven flows reversed.
Technology/AI: Tech and AI stocks had mixed performance—rallied earlier but renewed valuation concerns emerged, especially after SoftBank Group sold its remaining stake in Nvidia Corporation for ~$5.83 bn.
India Markets: Sensex and Nifty 50 gained on U.S. trade optimism and the reopening narrative; Sensex +336 points.

Strategic & Tactical Insight

Tactical (0-3 months): The reopening trade appears in motion, favouring risk assets and commodities. Yet caution is warranted in tech/AI given fresh alarms on valuations.
Conviction (3-12 months): With liquidity likely to improve post-shutdown, focus on sectors backed by structural trends: AI infrastructure, clean energy, tokenized assets. Monitor tech valuations.
Watchpoints: U.S. employment data, AI profitability updates, government funding ratification in the U.S. House, credit market warning signs from tech/corporate sectors.

Bernd Pulch Commentary

“When markets cheer the end of a shutdown, they’re really betting on clarity and liquidity. But what matters next is the flow — of credit, of innovation, of risk appetite. Reopening is the trigger, not the destination.”

For extended briefings, position notes, deep-dive datasets and tokenized-asset tracking, join Investment – The Original on Patreon: 👉 patreon.com/investment
Stay independent. Stay ahead.

Ausblick (Deutsch)

Der Schritt zur Beendigung der US-Regierungsschließung hat den Risikoappetit deutlich angekurbelt – doch hinter dem Aufschwung lauert die Frage nach Bewertung und Liquidität. Kurzfristig könnte sich eine Rotation von defensiven Werten in Tech und Infrastruktur manifestieren. Mittel- bis langfristig bleibt entscheidend: fließt das Kapital nachhaltig oder bleibt der „Reopening-Schub“ ein kurzer Impuls?

Tags (English)

Investment Digest, Global Markets, S&P 500, Gold Price, Treasury Yields, Government Shutdown, Tech Valuations, AI Stocks, Nvidia, India Markets, Risk Assets, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exclusive, Independent Intelligence, Commodity Rally

Tags (Deutsch)

Investment Digest, Weltmärkte, S&P 500, Goldpreis, Staatsanleihen, US-Shutdown, Tech-Bewertungen, KI-Aktien, Nvidia, Indische Märkte, Risikoanlagen, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exklusiv, Unabhängige Analyse, Rohstoffrallye

📈 Global Market Snapshot

US Markets: The S&P 500 edged up +0.3% to 5,250, while the Nasdaq gained +0.4%, supported by a rebound in tech after last week’s sell-off. Investors await this week’s US CPI data for inflation clues.
Europe: The DAX rose +0.5%, while FTSE 100 stayed flat as energy shares slipped amid softer crude prices.
Asia: Nikkei 225 climbed +0.8%, driven by chipmakers after the yen stabilized near ¥151 per dollar. Shanghai Composite was steady as weak export data limited gains.

💰 Commodities & Currencies

Gold remains around $2,355/oz, with traders awaiting US inflation data.
Oil (Brent) fell to $83.10/barrel amid easing geopolitical risk and higher supply from the US.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $67,800, up slightly after ETF inflows reached their highest since September.
EUR/USD stands at 1.073, while USD/JPY holds around 151.2.

📊 Sector Highlights

Tech: Microsoft and Nvidia are both up over 1% as AI investment themes remain dominant.
Defense: Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems continue to benefit from rising NATO defense budgets.
Energy Transition: Shell announced a $2.5B investment in carbon capture projects, but investors remain skeptical about returns.
Crypto & Blockchain: Ethereum (ETH) trades at $3,270, with optimism around Layer-2 upgrades in Q1 2026.

🌍 Macro Focus

US Inflation Preview: Analysts expect October CPI at 3.3% YoY, slightly below last month’s 3.5%.
EU Economy: Germany’s industrial output fell 0.2%, its fourth consecutive monthly decline, intensifying recession fears.
China: Exports dropped 6.1% YoY, signaling continued weakness in global demand.

📈 Investment Insight by Bernd Pulch

“While markets flirt with optimism, underlying debt and liquidity trends remain critical blind spots. The real story is not in the CPI print but in the silent tightening of global credit. In every boom hides its undoing — and this time, it’s structural.”

🎯 Watchlist

Asset Current 1D Change 1W Trend S&P 500 5,250 +0.3% ↗ Gold $2,355 +0.2% → Bitcoin $67,800 +0.4% ↗ Brent Oil $83.10 -0.7% ↘ EUR/USD 1.073 +0.1% →

🔒 Support Independent Analysis

This Investment Digest is part of the Bernd Pulch – Investment: The Original series, bringing daily intelligence beyond mainstream narratives.
💎 For extended analysis, classified deep dives, and portfolio models:
👉 patreon.com/investment

German version follows below ⬇️

🇩🇪 Investment Digest – 10. November 2025

Von Bernd Pulch – „Investment: Das Original“
📍patreon.com/investment

📈 Globale Märkte

USA: Der S&P 500 stieg um +0,3 % auf 5.250 Punkte. Anleger warten auf neue Inflationsdaten (CPI).
Europa: Der DAX legte um +0,5 % zu, während der FTSE 100 stagnierte.
Asien: Der Nikkei 225 gewann +0,8 %, angetrieben von Technologiewerten. Shanghai Composite blieb unverändert.

💰 Rohstoffe & Devisen

Gold: $2.355 je Unze, stabil vor US-Inflationsdaten.
Öl (Brent): $83,10 pro Barrel, schwächer wegen steigender US-Produktion.
Bitcoin: $67.800, leicht im Plus nach hohen ETF-Zuflüssen.
EUR/USD: 1,073 – USD/JPY: 151,2.

📊 Branchen

Technologie: Microsoft & Nvidia treiben den Markt.
Rüstung: Lockheed Martin & BAE Systems profitieren weiter.
Energie: Shell investiert $2,5 Mrd. in CO₂-Abscheidung.
Krypto: Ethereum bei $3.270 – Fokus auf Layer-2-Upgrades.

🌍 Makro-Trends

USA: Erwartete Inflation Oktober 3,3 % YoY.
Deutschland: Industrieproduktion -0,2 % – weiter Rezessionsangst.
China: Exporte -6,1 % im Jahresvergleich.

📈 Einschätzung von Bernd Pulch

„Hinter der scheinbaren Marktstabilität lauert die strukturelle Schwäche. Die Liquiditätsströme werden enger, die Schuldenberge wachsen. Das wahre Risiko liegt unter der Oberfläche.“

💎 Unterstütze Unabhängigen Journalismus

Dieses Digest ist Teil von „Investment: Das Original“ von Bernd Pulch.
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INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST OCTOBER 21/22 2025✌INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL 21./22. OKTOBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST – OCTOBER 21, 2025 ✌
FOUNDED IN 2000 AND STILL INDEPENDENT 🕶️

🌍 GLOBAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Global markets entered the week walking a tightrope between optimism and unease. The S&P 500 rose modestly, powered by tech giants posting resilient quarterly results, while European equities lagged amid renewed inflation concerns and political headwinds in Berlin and Paris. Asian markets showed quiet strength, boosted by liquidity injections from the People’s Bank of China, aimed at rescuing debt-laden developers and supporting regional growth.

The sentiment among professional investors remains cautiously constructive, but traders note rising fragility in global liquidity and tightening credit spreads — signals that volatility could return suddenly, especially as the U.S. earnings season deepens and energy markets adjust to fluctuating Middle East tensions.

💵 CURRENCIES & COMMODITIES

The U.S. dollar slipped for a third consecutive session, reflecting a calmer interest-rate outlook. The euro strengthened to 1.0920, while the yen held steady near 147. Gold climbed to $2,462 per ounce — its highest level since 2023 — as central banks continued aggressive purchases. Oil fell below $86 as inventories rose and risk premiums receded.

Bitcoin traded near $64,000, with on-chain data suggesting a rotation from short-term speculators to long-term holders. Analysts interpret this as a preparatory phase before potential ETF-driven inflows later in Q4.

📈 FIXED INCOME

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered around 4.26%, a sign of relative calm after months of turbulence. German Bunds stayed at 2.38%, while UK Gilts continued to attract institutional flows seeking refuge from equity volatility. Bond traders now broadly price in the first Fed rate cut by mid-2026.

🧠 STRATEGIC INSIGHT

Markets are living in the “eye of the storm.” Inflation appears to be slowing, but credit stress is quietly building in small and mid-sized corporate sectors. Hedge funds are repositioning — reducing high-beta exposure and accumulating defensive energy and defense stocks.

Private capital is increasingly moving into AI infrastructure, sovereign data storage, and military robotics — areas expected to receive strong public funding through 2026. Analysts at major European banks caution: “The next tech bubble may not pop — it may militarize.”

🔍 TODAY’S ANALYTICS CORNER

Market Mood: Neutral to cautiously bullish (Sentiment Index: 59)
Hot Sectors: Semiconductors, Energy Transition, Cyber Defense
Cold Spots: Commercial Real Estate, ESG Funds, Consumer Credit
Macro Pulse: Global M2 liquidity up 1.3% MoM — a hidden support for equities

🕰️ FLASHBACK

On October 21, 1987, traders still reeled from Black Monday’s 22.6% plunge the day before — a cataclysm triggered by algorithmic panic and unchecked leverage. It remains a timeless lesson: systems built for speed can collapse in seconds.

🧭 OUTLOOK

Short term: Profit rotation likely to continue as investors rebalance portfolios.
Mid term: AI, infrastructure, and defense sectors lead the conviction list for Q4.
Long term: Liquidity will determine everything — those who track it will stay ahead of the herd.

📰 FROM BERNDPULCH.ORG

For 25 years, BerndPulch.org has delivered independent intelligence, unfiltered data, and fearless commentary — long before “alternative media” became a buzzword.
We are reader-supported, non-algorithmic, and non-aligned. No sponsors, no paywalls, no corporate influence — only facts, insight, and a dash of rebellion.

Stay informed, stay skeptical, stay independent.
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INVESTMENT – THE ORIGINAL DIGEST SINCE 2000
Independent. Unfiltered. Ahead of the herd.

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Support independent financial journalism — not the algorithm.

INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL DIGEST – 21. OKTOBER 2025 ✌
GEGRÜNDET IM JAHR 2000 UND NOCH IMMER UNABHÄNGIG 🕶️

🌍 WELTWEITE MÄRKTE IM ÜBERBLICK

Die globalen Börsen starteten mit gemischten Signalen in die Woche. Der S&P 500 legte leicht zu, getragen von starken Tech-Ergebnissen, während europäische Aktien wegen Energiepreisen und politischer Unsicherheit stagnierten. Asien zeigte sich robust – unterstützt durch neue Liquiditätsspritzen der chinesischen Zentralbank.

Anleger bleiben vorsichtig optimistisch, doch zunehmende Kreditrisiken und sinkende Margen könnten die Stimmung im vierten Quartal trüben. Viele Marktteilnehmer erwarten, dass die derzeitige Ruhe nur eine Atempause vor erneuter Volatilität ist.

💵 DEVISEN & ROHSTOFFE

Der US-Dollar schwächte sich weiter ab, der Euro festigte sich bei 1,09. Gold stieg auf 2.462 USD – getrieben durch Zentralbankkäufe. Ölpreise fielen unter 86 USD, da Lagerbestände zunahmen.
Bitcoin blieb stabil bei etwa 64.000 USD; die Daten zeigen zunehmende Langfristhalter.

📈 ANLEIHEN

Die Renditen zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen verharrten bei 4,26 %, auch deutsche Bunds blieben stabil bei 2,38 %. Anleiheinvestoren erwarten eine erste Zinssenkung der Fed bis Mitte 2026.

🧠 STRATEGISCHER EINBLICK

Der Markt befindet sich „im Auge des Sturms“: Inflation sinkt, aber Kreditrisiken steigen. Hedgefonds senken Risikoquoten und investieren verstärkt in Energie, Verteidigung und KI-Infrastruktur.
Private Investoren richten den Fokus auf Datenhoheit und militärische Robotik – Zukunftsmärkte mit geopolitischer Sprengkraft.

🔍 ANALYTIK-BEREICH

Stimmung: neutral bis leicht optimistisch (Index: 59)
Gewinner: Halbleiter, Energiewende, Cyberabwehr
Verlierer: Immobilien, ESG-Fonds, Konsumkredite
Makrotrend: Weltweite Geldmenge wächst weiter – heimlicher Stützpfeiler der Märkte

🕰️ RÜCKBLICK

Am 21. Oktober 1987 standen die Märkte noch unter Schock des „Black Monday“ – ein Absturz von 22,6 % an einem einzigen Tag. Die Lektion bleibt: Geschwindigkeit ersetzt keine Stabilität.

🧭 AUSBLICK

Kurzfristig: Sektorrotation und Gewinnmitnahmen.
Mittelfristig: KI, Infrastruktur und Verteidigung bleiben Favoriten.
Langfristig: Liquidität bleibt der entscheidende Faktor.

📰 VON BERNDPULCH.ORG

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INVESTMENT – DAS ORIGINAL SEIT 2000
Unabhängig. Ungefiltert. Voraus.

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Iran’s Nuclear Bomb in 2 Weeks? Escobar and Nima’s Explosive Claim Unpacked✌

“Stunning view of Iran’s potential nuclear threat by June 29, 2025, with Middle East tensions. Explore Escobar & Nima’s claim on berndpulch.org. #IranNuclear #Geopolitics2025 #EconomicImpact”

Iran’s Nuclear Bomb in 2 Weeks? Escobar and Nima’s Explosive Claim Unpacked

Introduction

On Saturday, June 14, 2025, the Dialogue Works podcast, hosted by Nima Rostami Alkhorshid, featured geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar in a discussion that sent ripples across online forums and social media. Nima, a Persian academic and podcaster based in Brazil, reportedly claimed that Iran could or will possess a nuclear bomb within two weeks, a timeframe that, if true, would mark a seismic shift in global security. This assertion, tied to Escobar’s insights, demands a critical examination. Is this a realistic projection, a strategic signal, or a provocative overreach? For berndpulch.org readers, understanding the stakes—geopolitical, economic, and moral—is paramount as we navigate this uncharted territory.

The Claim in Context

The statement emerged during a podcast episode addressing escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following recent Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks. Nima, leveraging his Persian heritage and contacts, suggested Iran’s technical capability to rapidly develop a nuclear weapon, a notion Escobar may have contextualized with his extensive network of Asian intelligence sources. This aligns with Escobar’s recent narratives, such as his April 2024 claims of an Israeli nuclear plot thwarted by Russia, which, while unverified, highlighted Iran’s strategic vulnerabilities.

The two weeks timeline is strikingly short, contrasting with longer estimates from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western analysts, who have suggested Iran could produce enough fissile material for a bomb in weeks to months, with weaponization taking up to a year. Nima’s claim may reflect insider knowledge, a misinterpretation, or a deliberate escalation to provoke dialogue—fitting Dialogue Works’ mission to challenge narratives. Without an official transcript, the ambiguity between “could” and “will” fuels speculation, but the intent seems to signal urgency.

Technical Feasibility: Can Iran Do It?

Iran’s nuclear program has advanced significantly since the 2015 deal’s collapse. The IAEA’s latest report (June 2025) confirms Iran has amassed 43.1 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, nearing the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material. Experts estimate 25 kg at 90% is sufficient for one bomb, meaning Iran might need to enrich an additional 10–15 kg. With its advanced centrifuges (e.g., IR-6 models), Iran could theoretically achieve this in 1–2 weeks under optimal conditions, per IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi’s 2022 assessment of a “matter of weeks” for material acquisition.

However, weaponization—designing a deliverable bomb—poses a steeper challenge. Iran lacks publicly confirmed tests of a nuclear explosive device, and its expertise, while growing, relies on historical data from the pre-2003 Amad program. The establishment narrative claims Iran is years from mastery, but skeptics argue clandestine progress, possibly with North Korean or Russian assistance, could accelerate this. A two-week timeline assumes pre-existing components and a decision to defy the fatwa against nuclear weapons by Supreme Leader Khamenei—a bold leap unsupported by current evidence.

Critically, this hinges on Iran’s intent. Posts on X suggest some believe Iran’s restraint is tactical, not doctrinal, yet no definitive proof of an active weapons program exists. The claim’s plausibility rests on a rapid, secretive pivot, which, while technically possible, strains credibility without leaks or satellite confirmation.

Geopolitical Implications

If Iran acquires a nuclear bomb by June 28, 2025, the Middle East’s power balance would shatter. Israel, with its undeclared arsenal, might preemptively strike, risking a regional war involving the U.S., Russia, and China. Iran’s allies—Hezbollah, Houthis, and potentially Russia—could escalate proxy conflicts, while Saudi Arabia might accelerate its own nuclear ambitions, possibly through Pakistan.

Escobar’s past reports, like the alleged Russian downing of an Israeli F-35 in 2024, suggest a narrative where Russia and China back Iran to counter Western dominance. A nuclear Iran could embolden this axis, challenging NATO’s eastern flank and U.S. sanctions leverage. However, the establishment downplays this, framing Iran’s program as peaceful, a stance undermined by its refusal to cooperate with IAEA inspections at undeclared sites.

The two-week window also pressures diplomacy. The U.S. and Europe might rush negotiations, but Israel’s recent attacks (e.g., Rishon LeZion, June 2025) indicate a hair-trigger response. X sentiment reflects fear of miscalculation, with some users predicting a “World War III” trigger—a scenario this site has explored in prior analyses.

Economic Ramifications

A nuclear-capable Iran would roil global markets. Oil prices, already at $95/bbl due to Red Sea disruptions, could surge past $150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz faces threats, halting 20% of global oil flows. The S&P 500 might drop 10–15%, as investors flee to gold (up 15% in panic scenarios) and the U.S. dollar strengthens as a safe haven. Inflation could hit 10% globally, with food and fuel shortages hitting vulnerable regions hardest.

Supply chains, already strained by Ukraine and Taiwan tensions, would face new bottlenecks, especially for electronics reliant on Middle Eastern logistics. Emerging markets like India and Brazil (Nima’s base) might see capital outflows, reversing 2025 growth forecasts from 3.2% to below 1%. The establishment might spin this as manageable, but historical oil shocks (e.g., 1973) suggest deeper recessions loom if escalation persists.

Critical Analysis: Truth or Hype?

The claim’s source—Nima’s contacts and Escobar’s intel network—lacks public corroboration, a red flag given Escobar’s history of single-source stories (e.g., the 2024 F-35 claim, widely debunked). The establishment dismisses such reports as propaganda, but their opacity invites skepticism. Iran’s technical capacity supports a material timeline, yet the political will and operational secrecy required for a two-week bomb stretch credulity.

X posts hint at Iranian defiance post-Israel’s strikes, but sentiment alone isn’t evidence. The IAEA’s data, while authoritative, may understate Iran’s progress due to limited access. Conversely, overhyping a nuclear breakout could serve Western hawks or Iranian hardliners, each with agendas. Without hard proof—satellite imagery, defector testimony, or an Iranian test—this remains a provocative hypothesis, not fact.

Conclusion

Nima and Escobar’s claim that Iran could or will have a nuclear bomb in two weeks by June 28, 2025, ignites a firestorm of speculation. Technically feasible for material enrichment, it falters on weaponization and intent. Geopolitically, it risks war; economically, it threatens collapse. Yet, without verifiable evidence, it’s a call to watch closely rather than panic. For berndpulch.org readers, the lesson is clear: question narratives, monitor developments, and prepare for volatility. The next fortnight will test this prediction’s mettle—stay vigilant.

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Four Scenarios for World War and Economy: Week of June 16–22, 2025✌

“Explore World War 3 scenarios 2025 & economic impacts with this map highlighting Ukraine, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions. See probabilities, oil prices, and market trends on berndpulch.org. #Geopolitics2025 #EconomicForecast”

Introduction

As global tensions simmer in regions like Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and the Middle East, the potential for escalation into a broader conflict remains a pressing concern. Simultaneously, economic uncertainties driven by trade policies, inflation, and geopolitical shifts continue to shape markets and livelihoods. Below, we outline four scenarios for the upcoming week, ranging from optimistic to catastrophic, assessing their implications for global stability and the world economy. Each scenario includes a probability estimate, reflecting current trends and expert insights, tailored for berndpulch.org’s readership.

Scenario 1: Diplomatic Breakthrough (Very Good)

Narrative: This week, unexpected diplomatic progress emerges in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A temporary ceasefire is brokered during talks mediated by a neutral party, such as Turkey or India, following a quiet backchannel agreement. Russia agrees to halt offensive operations in eastern Ukraine for 30 days, while Ukraine commits to pausing counteroffensives. Concurrently, U.S.-China trade negotiations yield a partial agreement to reduce tariffs on select goods, easing tensions over Taiwan. In the Middle East, Israel and Iran engage in indirect talks through Qatar, de-escalating rhetoric after recent missile exchanges. These developments signal a rare moment of global cooperation, bolstered by public pressure for peace and economic stability.

Economic Impact: Global markets rally as investor confidence surges. The S&P 500 rises by 3–5%, and European indices like the DAX climb similarly. Oil prices drop to $70/bbl as fears of Middle East disruptions fade, easing inflationary pressures. The U.S. dollar weakens slightly against the euro and yuan, reflecting optimism in global trade. Cryptocurrencies and commodities like gold stabilize, as safe-haven demand wanes. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, see capital inflows, with India’s Sensex gaining 4%. Supply chains, strained by recent trade disputes, begin to normalize, reducing costs for manufacturers. Global GDP growth projections for 2025 are revised upward to 3.2% by the IMF, reflecting renewed optimism.

Probability: 20%
– Rationale: Historical data suggests ceasefires often follow prolonged stalemates, as seen in past Ukraine talks. The Atlantic Council’s 2025 survey indicates 58% of experts see potential for positive global cooperation, particularly on trade and climate. However, entrenched positions in Ukraine and U.S.-China rivalry lower the likelihood of simultaneous breakthroughs across multiple fronts. Public pressure and economic fatigue increase the chance of small diplomatic wins, but major resolutions are less likely in a single week.

Scenario 2: Status Quo with Minor Progress (Moderately Good)

Narrative: The week sees incremental steps toward de-escalation but no major breakthroughs. Russia and Ukraine agree to a prisoner exchange, reducing tensions slightly, though fighting continues at a lower intensity. China and the U.S. hold virtual trade talks, with no formal agreement but signals of willingness to negotiate further. In the Middle East, Israel limits its retaliatory strikes to low-impact targets in Iran, avoiding oil infrastructure, while Iran responds with restrained rhetoric. NATO strengthens its eastern flank but avoids provocative exercises near Russia. Global powers prioritize economic stability over escalation, but underlying tensions persist.

Economic Impact: Markets remain cautiously optimistic, with global indices like the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 gaining 1–2%. Oil prices stabilize at $80/bbl, reflecting reduced fears of major disruptions. The U.S. dollar holds steady, while the euro gains slightly due to European diplomatic efforts. Supply chain bottlenecks ease marginally, particularly for semiconductors, boosting tech stocks. Inflation remains a concern, with global headline inflation projected at 6.8% for 2025, but central banks like the Federal Reserve maintain current rates, avoiding aggressive hikes. Emerging economies see modest growth, with trade flows improving slightly.

Probability: 50%
– Rationale: The status quo is the most likely outcome, as historical trends show conflicts like Ukraine and Middle East tensions often oscillate without rapid escalation or resolution. Fitch Solutions’ analysis gives a 50% probability to limited tit-for-tat actions in the Middle East, supporting this scenario. Economic incentives for stability, as noted by the World Bank, encourage minor de-escalation to avoid trade disruptions. However, deep mistrust between major powers caps progress.

Scenario 3: Escalation Without Full Conflict (Moderately Bad)

Narrative: Tensions spike as Russia intensifies shelling in Ukraine’s Donbas region, prompting NATO to deploy additional troops to Poland and the Baltics. China conducts large-scale naval exercises near Taiwan, raising fears of a blockade, though no direct action is taken. In the Middle East, Israel launches targeted strikes on Iran’s military facilities, prompting Iran to retaliate via proxies like the Houthis, disrupting Red Sea shipping. The U.S. imposes new sanctions on Chinese tech firms, escalating trade tensions. No major power declares war, but the risk of miscalculation grows, with global media amplifying fears of World War III.

Economic Impact: Global markets decline, with the Dow Jones dropping 5–7% and Asian markets like the Hang Seng falling 6%. Oil prices surge to $95/bbl due to Red Sea disruptions, driving up fuel costs and inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthens as a safe-haven currency, while the yuan and euro weaken. Gold prices rise 10%, reflecting investor anxiety. Supply chains face renewed strain, particularly for oil and electronics, increasing costs for consumers. Global growth forecasts for 2025 are revised downward to 2.4%, with the eurozone at risk of recession.

Probability: 25%
– Rationale: Escalation is plausible given ongoing conflicts and recent actions, such as Iran’s missile strikes and China’s Taiwan rhetoric. Newsweek’s expert analysis highlights Russia and Iran as flashpoints, with a high risk of miscalculation. However, mutual deterrence, including nuclear risks, reduces the likelihood of rapid escalation to full conflict. Historical data from the Cuban Missile Crisis suggests powers often pull back from the brink. Economic costs of escalation also incentivize restraint.

Scenario 4: Major Conflict Erupts (Very Bad)

Narrative: A catastrophic miscalculation triggers a major conflict. Russia launches a massive offensive in Ukraine, targeting Kyiv, prompting NATO to authorize airstrikes on Russian positions near the border. Simultaneously, China imposes a partial blockade on Taiwan, leading to U.S. naval intervention. In the Middle East, Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz. North Korea conducts missile tests, threatening South Korea and Japan. Global alliances are activated, with NATO, Russia, China, and Iran mobilizing for war. Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, though no nuclear weapons are used this week.

Economic Impact: Global markets crash, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting 15–20%. Oil prices skyrocket to $150/bbl, triggering hyperinflation fears. The U.S. dollar surges as a safe-haven, while other currencies collapse. Gold and cryptocurrencies spike amid panic. Global trade halts, with 80% of maritime trade disrupted, devastating supply chains. Inflation soars to 10% globally, with food and fuel shortages emerging. The World Bank projects a 0.5% global contraction in 2025, with advanced economies entering deep recessions. Social unrest grows in vulnerable regions.

Probability: 5%
– Rationale: A full-scale global conflict is unlikely in a single week due to the catastrophic costs of nuclear and economic fallout, as noted in mutually assured destruction doctrines. The Atlantic Council’s survey indicates only 33% of experts see a direct Israel-Iran war by 2035, suggesting low near-term probability. Historical precedents, like the avoidance of escalation in the 1983 Soviet false alarm, show restraint in crisis moments. However, simultaneous miscalculations across multiple fronts could trigger rapid escalation, justifying a small but non-zero probability.

Conclusion

The upcoming week is most likely to see a continuation of the status quo (50% probability), with minor diplomatic progress balancing ongoing tensions. A diplomatic breakthrough (20%) is possible but constrained by mistrust, while escalation (25%) remains a concern due to active conflict zones. A full-scale war (5%) is the least likely but most devastating scenario. Economically, stability hinges on avoiding major disruptions to trade and energy markets. For berndpulch.org readers, staying informed and prepared for volatility is critical, as global dynamics remain unpredictable. Diplomacy and economic resilience must be prioritized to avert the worst outcomes.

Sources:

Atlantic Council, “Welcome to 2035: What the world could look like in ten years,” 2025.
Fitch Solutions, “MENA War Scenarios: 22% Probability Of Full Conflict,” 2024.
Newsweek, “What would World War III look like?” 2024.
World Bank, “Global Economic Prospects,” 2025.
Wikipedia, “World War III,” 2025.<br

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